Wine consumption: What figures and trends are predicted for 2026?

The global landscape of wine consumption is entering a decisive period of transformation. After decades of gradual expansion, the industry is facing a slowdown in volume growth, coupled with a simultaneous shift toward higher value and quality. 

This evolution reflects structural changes in demographics, consumer behavior, and international trade patterns, which are forcing producers to rethink their strategies. Insights from the State of the U.S. Wine Industry 2025 Report (SVB) shed light on these dynamics and help explain how local patterns are reshaping the broader international market.

Wine consumption trends

One of the clearest wine consumption trends worldwide is the decline in total volume paired with a rise in premium segments. In the United States, the SVB report forecasts a contraction of –3% to –1% in 2025 volume sales, while total sales value is projected to remain flat or slightly negative. This “value resilience” signals a fundamental reorientation: consumers are buying fewer bottles overall, but they are trading up in price and quality.

This trend is not limited to the U.S. In other mature markets, such as France, Italy, and Spain, consumption volumes have stabilized or declined slightly, but premium labels, appellations of origin, and limited editions continue to see strong demand. In these countries, wine is deeply embedded in cultural and gastronomic traditions, which helps sustain its role even as younger generations diversify their drinking habits.

Wine consumption by country: Contrasts across regions

When examining wine consumption by country, distinct patterns emerge that reflect both historical traditions and emerging market dynamics. Established wine-producing nations, with long-standing cultural ties to viticulture, often show stable or slightly declining volumes, yet maintain strong demand for premium and regionally distinctive wines. 

In contrast, emerging markets are still building their wine culture, with opportunities for volume growth and brand establishment, although they remain sensitive to economic fluctuations and shifting consumer preferences. 

These contrasts highlight the diversity of global wine markets and underscore the need for producers to adopt differentiated strategies tailored to each region’s unique consumption habits, cultural values, and economic realities.

Mature producers (France, Italy, Spain, Portugal) 

Consumption per capita remains among the highest globally, though in some cases it is gradually declining. Consumers in these regions are shifting toward sustainable, organic, and terroir-driven wines, showing a preference for authenticity and heritage over mass-produced options.

The United States

Now the world’s largest single market in volume terms, the U.S. reflects the global challenge of slowing demand and changing demographics. Older generations continue to consume wine regularly, while younger cohorts increasingly explore alternatives like craft beer, spirits, or no-alcohol beverages.

Emerging markets (China, Brazil, Eastern Europe)

Here, the picture is more optimistic. Wine is still building cultural relevance, and per-capita consumption has room to grow. These markets represent an opportunity for exporters, but they also pose risks, as consumer preferences are volatile and heavily influenced by broader economic conditions.

Taken together, these patterns reveal that global wine growth is no longer uniform. While some countries are experiencing stagnation or contraction, others provide opportunities for volume expansion, but only for producers able to adapt their branding and positioning to local tastes.

Average wine consumption 

The average wine consumption per capita has traditionally served as a benchmark to measure market health. However, in today’s environment it is no longer a sufficient indicator of industry strength. In many countries, per-capita consumption is declining slightly, yet the overall value of sales is holding steady or even growing in premium tiers.

This suggests that consumers are redefining what “average” means: drinking fewer glasses of wine per week, but selecting higher-quality bottles when they do. Millennials and Gen Z in particular are driving this change, favoring wines with a clear story, eco-certifications, or innovative formats such as cans, small bottles, and low-alcohol versions. For producers, this means the focus must shift from chasing volume to cultivating loyalty and perceived value.

Key global wine consumption trends for 2025 and beyond

Understanding the future of wine consumption requires looking beyond short-term fluctuations in volume and value. The State of the U.S. Wine Industry 2025 Report, combined with broader international data, reveals a sector undergoing structural transformation rather than cyclical decline. 

While overall consumption levels in mature markets are stabilizing or even contracting slightly, the underlying dynamics point to a more selective, value-driven, and experience-oriented consumer base. This shift is reshaping the strategies of producers, distributors, and exporters worldwide.

Against this backdrop, several themes emerge as central to the evolution of global demand. From the steady rise of premium wines to the growing role of sustainability and innovation, the next phase of the industry will be defined by its ability to adapt to changing consumer expectations while preserving the cultural and emotional significance of wine.

• Premiumization over volume: The strongest performance is concentrated in premium and ultra-premium categories. Consumers are demonstrating willingness to pay more for authenticity, craftsmanship, and sustainability.
• Diversification of channels: Beyond supermarkets and traditional retail, growth is concentrated in online sales, subscription clubs, and direct-to-consumer models, which allow wineries to build stronger relationships with their audience.
• Sustainability and authenticity: Eco-friendly vineyard practices, reduced carbon footprints, and transparent communication are no longer optional, they are becoming decisive purchasing factors.
• Innovation in formats and experiences: Alternative packaging, low-alcohol wines, and hybrid experiences such as virtual tastings are capturing the attention of younger urban consumers.

Strategic implications for wineries and exporters

For wineries and exporters seeking to remain competitive in the evolving global marketplace, aligning production with real demand has become a fundamental priority. Overproduction and excess inventory not only exert downward pressure on prices but also risk diluting brand equity. The key lies in adapting production strategies to realistic consumption trends, ensuring that volumes reflect market needs rather than outdated expectations of growth.

At the same time, investment in brand and storytelling is increasingly decisive. As global wine consumption stabilizes, differentiation through heritage, terroir, or innovation becomes essential to capture consumer attention. Strong narratives that connect the product to its origin, sustainability practices, or unique winemaking approaches help wineries stand out in a crowded international market.

International expansion remains an important avenue for growth, but success requires selectivity and precision. Entering new markets offers opportunities for diversification, yet producers must carefully tailor their products, pricing, and messaging to local cultures and consumer expectations. Without this adaptation, efforts to penetrate foreign markets may result in commoditization and diminished margins.

Finally, strengthening premium positioning has emerged as one of the most reliable strategies for long-term sustainability. Global data consistently shows that growth is concentrated in higher-value segments, where consumers are willing to pay more for quality, authenticity, and exclusivity. Wineries that emphasize these attributes, rather than competing solely on volume and mass distribution, will be best positioned to thrive in a changing and competitive global environment.

The global picture of wine consumption is not one of decline but of transformation. While volumes may stabilize or contract slightly in mature regions, the industry’s long-term vitality lies in value creation, innovation, and alignment with evolving consumer expectations.